note: hunting cloud Anderson horowitz fund is one of silicon valley’s most powerful fund, can be said of the world’s most wise investor, they not only invest in the most high valuations in the enterprise, but also in was unknown to the enterprise to carry on the investment. Recently, the fund investment of humanism, dick Evans (Benedict Evans) on “the Wall Street journal digital conference” do predictions about mobile view. The following is the original:
yes, we are standing in a special historical turning point.
for the first time, the technology is sold to each ordinary people
1. More than 10 years ago, we were from 1995 to 2000, the number of Internet users increase, this stage number of Internet users increase from 050 million to 050 million.
2. After the technology bubble, more amazing Internet population growth, increased from 400 million to about 3 billion people this year. At the same time, the use of intelligent mobile phone number is 2 billion.
3.2020 years, some 1 billion people and the world will become Internet users to the Internet via a smart phone, number of Internet users reached 4 billion.
4.1995 years up to now, don’t get to the Internet or a smartphone in the number of adult of shrinking: the former from nearly 1995 hundred fell to about 36% in 2017; The latter from 1995 hundred fell to about 28% in 2017.
5.2020 years, 80% of the world adults have smartphones.
2020 population in the world at around $2020; Adult population of about 5.2 billion people; TV audience of 4.8 billion or so; A man of culture and the ability to read and write 4.5 billion or so; Function machine users around 4.3 billion; Internet users around 4 billion; Smartphone users around 4 billion; PC users to 1.7 billion; Personal PC users under 1 billion.
6. Smart phones, let everybody have a supercomputer in a pocket. A new iPhone number of transistors in CPU is 1995 times of the pentium 1995; Only the weekend released new iPhone, apple sold CPU transistor has reached 1995 in the world all 25 times of the CPU transistor in personal computers.
7. All people, even in the Sahara desert, their cell phone coverage, the 3 g network coverage and mobile equipment utilization rate is on the rise.
for the first time, the Internet pattern change
1. People spend time on mobile Internet, has been more than time spent on all computers on a web page.
in June 2013, by the user more time online than desktop users via mobile Internet time. But in June, the latter + mobile browser (App) has significantly more than the former.
in addition, the pattern of the mobile Internet is not completely fixed, such as just “Iinstalled an app on my Android smartphone.” this sentence, the “download”, “app”, “Android”, “smart phones”, these four concepts are also has the very big development space, in 2020, when I say this words, may and now meaning is different.
2. The complexity of the ecosystem.
iOS and Androi two market share difference because of different location of the industrial structure. In other words, using the iOS or Android, depends on where you are and what you are doing.
as shown above, the global sales, Android significantly more than the apple; But Facebook users in San Francisco, apple more than Android device users, at the same time in Jakarta, is in turn; In addition, apple’s app store income is significantly higher than Google Play; And data to the global Internet browser, apple slightly higher Android, but the data is reversed, the Android significantly more than apple.
3. Every new sensor means new business opportunities.
smartphones is much more complicated than that of PC, PC won’t ask anything it should know that, but the new sensor profoundly change the computer to know, so that each new sensors, can bring new business opportunities.
4. Mobile devices can cause “leverage effect”.
in 2020, the number of smartphones will reach PC 2-3 times, but multiplied by the advantages of portable and easy to use mobile devices, mobile devices will be able to provide an opportunity to 10 times in the PC era.
Facebook and WhatsApp is the most typical example. Two years, Facebook mobile advertising revenue has doubled, to become a huge volume of $6.5 billion customer department; Only 30 engineers WhatsApp information flow has reached to 7.2 billion within a year, you know, the global SMS total amount is 7.5 billion a year. nullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnull