note: hunting cloud as the most rapid domestic financial adviser, huaxing made a spoiled in the past few years, a service startup a head butt joint investment institutions, huaxing capital is the most understanding of domestic capital and industrial development pulse of the company, over the past year, how HuaXingRen view of gain and loss in a year? Theory of heat and bubbles in the capital markets and understand how unique? Here is huaxing capital managing director yong-bo du, starting at tencent technology:
in 2014, 40 private financing and merger and acquisition huaxing capital to complete the project, the transaction amount more than $5 billion, completed seven overseas market IPO projects and two convertible bonds, transaction amount more than $6.5 billion.
for work in 2014, a feeling is busy, shorten the startup financing. Before a funding cycle is melting out this year, the next round of next year, almost nine months or 12 months of age, to start the next round.
after the project done, so my team can have energy to do the next one. 2014 is basically a lot of project attached to, this round of just finished melting, the next round of start again, even a year do two rounds of posture, new projects, new on the market opportunity is much more special, this really active private equity market, our old not to come out an empty room.
shopping unfortunately miss pocket
because it’s busy, on the market in 2014 case leakage is more than normal, particularly in the relatively early in the case. A miss is unfortunately pocket shopping, they made a small shop. Why will miss?
when we look at 2013, said it with beauty, more like a mushroom street, 80% to 90% of the traffic guide on taobao. 2014 is busy, especially in the second half of the things, is not in time to follow up. This time, they launched a small store the product, five or six months rose very fast. We had sunk, not too much attention to this matter, wait for after we found it was up to, it’ll be finished in the first round.
now, it said, beauty is not the same and mushroom street is to make a vertical platform. In addition, the concept of micro store is accordance with big trend. Taobao is a centralized trading platform, the shop is decentralized trading platform. Taobao, now the new businesses over a very hard time. But if it is a decentralized market, each small businesses, are likely to use their own traffic, expansion, between friends bring some practical help for oneself, this with taobao completely different logic, can be made into a very upset, that’s why a lot of people are willing to cast his.
so, we also need to study and research more quickly. First is sensitive to new things to, every day there are a variety of channels, all kinds of information, what is the new model, the new company, new team, to be more sensitive. The second point is to run frequently, to the leg frequently, heard about the new model, new people, new company, you could go to the exchange. In one area, only the market research done very thorough, the main players after the comparison, can be sure that the one you think or do you believe that good.
is a public or private equity fund money?
each of the listed companies choose time points has its own strategic consideration, some may feel like a little earlier, some want more later, also related to the secondary market this trend, this window exactly how, assuming that in 2015, the secondary market is not very good, give me the valuation of capital market can’t reflect the value of I, some companies are not willing to.
from another point of view, there are some fast development, the future has the potential of the company, the listed may be go. Meituan for example, through wan, qian, BaiTuan, 10 regiment war, now in the group purchase on the market, basically it and public comments, they are very good company. Choose any point in time, is more of his own consideration.
but also should pay attention to a new phenomenon. In the private market, now can get as good as the secondary market valuations. Drops a taxi to get the $700 million in financing such as the end of last year.
someone put this phenomenon called secondary market upside down, the word “upside down” the sense that gives a person is like should not be like that, I have a different point of view, I think this is very normal.
because of secondary market investors, their style and investment strategy is not the same. The primary market, the market has a great deal of private capital, more is to look at the long term investment, enterprise internal long-term value, relatively speaking, it will be less speculation, more important is the enterprise after three to five years or more long-term value, whether can become a long-term business, relatively can avoid frequently under the influence of the secondary market fluctuations.
2 class market to hedge funds, including retail, is relatively more speculative, as do the band is easy to see the effects of short-term. There are some private capital that an enterprise don’t jump on the market. If a company that the relatively small size, too early to go to, will be restricted by many, on the one hand, you are going to spend a lot of energy to deal with these objects are related to and the stock market, assessment, communication, communication and roadshow of investors, on the other hand, you will always get the pressure of the secondary market shares, say that is not affected, no pressure, it is hard for you. So, would be easy to myopia. Real long-term core competitiveness of the enterprise is particularly important, sometimes need to invest big, dare not to do, it will restrict its development.
so some private capital to entrepreneurs recommendation is that you don’t try so hard to go public, I give you, as you get less money in the secondary market, I give you the same as the secondary market price, or even a better price, if you have some cash requirements, staff can also help you to do. But please don’t be influenced by short-term stock, involve your energy, really put your effort on building your long-term core competitiveness.
so, I think, in the private market financing amount exceed the amount of financing listed on the secondary market is not a flash in the pan. In the long run, this will continue to happen, but will be a little more, when the market is particularly good market is not so good time will be a little less.
it is good to have a bubble, also won’t suddenly burst
in 2012, most of the relatively late, the major is given priority to with PC Internet, occasionally talk about something mobile Internet. In 2013, the mobile Internet to as an important part of the talk. By 2014, if there is only an enterprise PC Internet, mobile Internet, then don’t come out to talk, people will not buy your account.
the mobile Internet in gold ten years, twenty years has just started, imagination is very large. Good market valuations support must be a little higher, amount is bigger, the frequency of the financing faster.
so for me, it is good to have bubbles, from the point of view of our personal interests, foam is good, the bigger the bubble, the thing was, the more you financing amount is too big. From the perspective of industry development, to a certain extent of foam is good.
regardless of the development of new industries, at the start of the will there is a bubble, you look good, highly excited about the future, the future prospect arrival time is too optimistic. Because the optimistic atmosphere, make a lot of people come out to do this thing, a lot of money into it, really makes a lot of basic level things better, to speed up the arrival of the whole time.
of course, because the market is the supply and demand relations, all of the money, all of the requirements, all of them came in, everybody will fight for, just start may not reflect its proper value, to a certain extent, embodies the value of it is appropriate, we also continue to upgrade strife, more than its actual value. To a certain degree, there is a rational regression, this time may it really really value, and walk back. Looking back on it, actually this is a long-term value, things always spiral process.
I think a business it is good to have a bubble in the starting stage. Capital markets, of course, nor is a straight line 1 vigorously go up, there will be a big ups and downs. I employed over the years, nearly three years in a band, a band four years, of course this time relative to last a little longer.
in 2015, a certain degree of adjustment is meeting some, but not like suddenly broke in 2000. Valuations, has a relatively after adjustment, will walk up.
better for your ball
as a financial adviser, give investors have two Suggestions.
I don’t think a lot of investors have a correct idea, he would rather to choose a second-rate project, simply because it is cheap. I think this view is wrong. My opinion is, would rather expensive, don’t wrong.
such as the Internet has just started, any tall 20-30 percentage than the share price, you voted for tencent, baidu, earlier that year, today you may only be a small difference, but this has big enough buy-backs. But if you are at cheap prices in a small company, where the company today, may be I don’t know.
I think is the best project is scarce and scarce resources everyone to rob, its value is high, may be in the market value of more expensive than its real value will be twenty or thirty percentage, but many people are willing to pick up, this time, if you think this price is too expensive, not appropriate, ran away, to choose a look not so high quality, but the price is reasonable, I advised him to choose the former instead, because of the good times, good enterprise, this gap, you may make a few months back, in terms of the market, it rise faster than anyone.
and, more importantly, if the market is not good, into a bear market, only the best enterprise can get the money, second-class enterprise can’t take money, this time, is not the problem of valuation, is of vital importance to the problem.
I suggest investors a friend, you still dare to be in the best of enterprise’s marketing efforts, in the long run, must be the best enterprise to create the best return, but in the short term that the gap of 20%, 30% and 50% in the long run, the effect is not too big.
another advice to investors is to have their own independent judgment.
now herding effect is quite serious, everyone still eager to jump on the market. Sometimes, in my heart is admired investors who have independent judgment, and his judgment not transfer to other people’s opinions.
the investor is very lonely, why very lonely? He sometimes under the decision, after all, is to invest in the future, he said, also dare not sure I must be right, but if he didn’t find others, he was shaking in my heart, just want to back down.
but there are some investors is indeed a lone ranger. Such as today, the capital of China, 2008, 2009, jingdong D round, basically everyone to see, no one dared to go, China as investors of jingdong, dare to stand up again, looking for his old colleague to come in a cast to jingdong, jingdong listed in 2014, Xu Xinyou good returns. So, I think sometimes from investors point of view, if you really believe in one thing, dare to be a different point of view, and not necessarily chasing the hot walk.