when considering a new field of market potential, actually need to solve two related problems:
the first thing you have to review how it now, look at it can become a lot more expensive;
second, you need to think about who will buy now, if it becomes better and cheaper then get what kind of consumer groups, and how to use.
the second question difficult point. Know some history should be clear, when looking at the size of a brick when mobile will say “this thing can be done in the future as big as CARDS, and the price is only $100.” To understand the technology should be easy to understand the truth. But if the car instead of only the carriage, the market will be much smaller. So hard to predict is the future of wal-mart, Los Angeles.
in other words, cheaper “better” than prediction since behavior change more easily. Pricing is a variable, as soon as the price down to a specific level is irrelevant. Cheaper is necessary, not sufficient conditions for the better, it may not guarantee that there will be billions of people will follow them. Why there is a theory to prove that it will have more and more fans.
so, if I give you 1975 2015 PCS, can you predict 40 years after the earth will have 1.5 billion PCS? In 1995 to show you the iPhone or Android mobile phone, you can forecast to 4 billion units worldwide have now (4/5 of the average adult hand a)?
so, if you want to estimate the size of the market, if the price is cheap, you have to find out who CARES. To do this, you will find may be able to tell you the answer, like other similar products, or competitive products – those who can act as you observe how others will see the things you do reference. But some market may be you can get a lot of data, while others can only guess.
in the first place, some would consider entering an existing, mature market, with excellent products and attractive price, hope to be able to occupy the market share. This case you already know what is the size of the market, you also know why you would use, how to do. The refrigerator market in the United States each year, for example, will sell X products. In addition, there will be a Y a family, every Z years to replace a new generation of products. Its price is low to every household has one, and product life can up to 10 years, so unless or rebuild renovating the kitchen will change. So that the whole market sales situation is not what you can control, you can take share, can let others buy you, but can’t let they bought more than before. So the question is how you through better operation mode to get more market share.
second, it can also be to create a new market. PC is example: imagine you in 1980 to predict this. You can know the typewriter sales, you know how many middle-class families, you can also assume that coming decades only businesses and middle-class families can afford to buy one. But you don’t know what the Internet is the key driver PC widely accepted, you don’t know how many office typing into PC, also don’t know how many type team will disappear, don’t know every one executive rather than write E-mail to personal assistant.
the mobile phone is the same problem. You can make a bottom-up analysis, estimate how many businessmen, taxi drivers or Courier, etc., and then calculate the proportion of about 10-15% of the population. There are a lot of people did in the 1990 s. But these guys are all wrong. Mobile phone just like the PC, you’ll have to imaginative vision to see the unknown things: “I think” the experience is transformative, earth people as long as money can buy a. Moore’s law is concerned with “money” means that 40-5 billion people, but let the little girl lost in the text is imagination. You can estimate the mobile phone may become very cheap, but it is not clear what is the meaning of it.
from this perspective, the mobile era of the early English these two mobile advertising to compare. The first AD is very rational, begin with “how many people will need this”, the so-called “10-15%” analysis. The second Orange advertising, assuming that everyone wants, let them have a mobile phone is our work, because we are changing the world. Users of mobile phone and no special case to prove that they are a universal product. Everywhere, therefore, the CEO Hans Snook told Britain’s penetration will reach 150%, most of people think he’s crazy (note that Cellnet advertising or after 2 years).
this is also predicted the watch will be confronted with the sales. Watch industry’s annual sales is about $1 billion more, you buy watches from $5 (China exported 600 million watch last year, the average price is $3 to $500, 5000 and 50000. But the information without any value. How much you are willing to use money to buy a watch or to buy it and tell me whether a new product attractive. You X years ago bought a watch, watch is the average GengHuanLv Y, those things don’t tell me you will not use apple tomorrow watches to replace the old watch.
in other words, although, in principle, you can convince hundreds of millions of people to buy smart watches, but the watch market now is not how many people would buy the smart watch gives the definite conclusion. This is like by looking at the typewriter to predict the PC market. Take a broader look at the market for luxury goods may help more (how many $500 to $1000 each year, how many women buy handbag?) Kill the camera, or look at is the smartphone market will have more reference value. How many people will be in your life to it (smart watches) to find a position? We have no data. As we have no data to support almost 20 years ago everyone will give the idea of mobile phone to find position.
third, possible between company belongs to the first and the second type. They enter the market is the trend of the basic fixed, but there are many small place variability. Such as the iPhone and Android is like that. The global mobile phone market is around 3.5 billion to 4 billion users, according to the macro economic law in the steady development, as well as more widespread. Apple and Google had not changed that can’t be done, of course, they are now. How many people to buy mobile phones or even the use of the frequency of these apple had not changed, but by redefining mobile phone apple change is everybody to buy mobile phones use, while Android is at a low price cuts, so the two will account for about 70% of sales (including function machine). As a result, from 2007 to 2007, the average price of mobile phones more than doubled, from $80 to about $185.
the legend hockey player Wayne Gretzy has far ahead of consciousness, he is able to predict the position of the puck will be instead of the current position, but apple and Google don’t do this, they tend to change the definition of the game. Similarly, take aim to Y $X % of the market share is short-sighted, really has the potential to company will change the Y instead of X. So how do you intend to see apple do car would be fun. I’m not sure of the size of the market will change range like cell phones.
Source: Ben – Evens
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