Silicon valley venture Daniel Peter Thiel really understand China?

hunting cloud network (note: if you know the valley super Peter Thiel, “and” to “from scratch” heard it must be. Book series of’s subversive color reverse thinking view is hot, swept through the business circle. But if we focus on Thiel to Asia, to China, everything is true? He really know Asia?

“from scratch” (i.e., the Zero to One “), a letter to start-ups, or about how to create the future, since its release in September was received high praise. But, for the author Peter Thiel’s point of view, I am a grain of salt, it seems to run counter to public response is: in the amazon entrepreneurship this bar, it is the top selling books; Us magazine Forbes, also known as “the economics of a writing”; More The Atlantic (The Atlantic) of Derek Thompson claimed that this is The business he has read The best books.

according to the survey, for some readers, the emergence of “from scratch” is a cool breeze, let a person particularly useful: for example, those who likes to read books such as entrepreneurs, who study the people of the world economy, those who want to learn the management idea, learning experience of successful start-ups. Thiel this “from scratch”, covers a lot of interesting topics, each topic is to form the feature article, but is because it is so comprehensive and detailed, I will worry, said such a whole book to readers, and don’t like to take whales feed tuna?

“from scratch” is really a good book, but it let me understand some views to the next thing I’d like to specifically talk about of the two special points of view: first, Thiel division scope of optimists, pessimists, especially for the division of the region; Second, out of fear, said Asia’s economic conservatism that is fair.

in the sixth chapter, Thiel with a simple quadrant diagram (see below) demonstrates the social level of confidence based on the two views of the future: optimism with certainty. Thiel says that China has shanzhai products production, because, she is a holding “determine pessimism” for the future of the society. He writes:

at the moment, China is perhaps the most pessimistic countries in the world. When the United States look at China’s rapid economic growth (10% a year since 2000), we all took it for granted that China would with a fairly confident attitude towards the future. However, perhaps because the United States has always been an optimist, virtually will force their optimism in China. China is that the speed of economic growth is not fast enough. All other countries worry that China will one day rule the world; But China worries that she doesn’t have this day.

Thiel also believes that when a society in the quadrant diagram and uncertain area and optimistic, always a high savings rate, and the investment rate is always very low. On the contrary, when society seemed sure and optimistic, investment to peak at the fifties and sixties of last century the United States is like that. Thiel to China due to the rate of investment and savings rate inside the quadrant of synchronous growth. Why is this so? It can only explain a problem, is the Chinese save a lot of money, they will also do some conservative investment, of course, the selected object is a high security of emerging enterprises, the new enterprise business model is also proven effective. (for example: doing rather successful cloning products) in the United States. These views may be in a certain extent, is correct, however, use them to explain the widespread problem is reasonable? They also apply to other parts of Asia?

I want to say is: I think Thiel has a few problems haven’t explain in place. First of all, pessimistic and optimistic, in fact, China and other Asia is not related to this pessimistic. Locals think so at least, what is more think Thiel completely backwards, we are very optimistic. As Silicon Asia’s founder, Rebecca Fannin, the momentum of China’s Internet business ten years ago began to lift, but relevant experience and lessons have been digestion and absorption, even to the second generation of entrepreneurs. “China’s first generation of entrepreneurs is unlikely to early retirement, enjoy a good time, go to the beach or golf course is part of the reason is they have rich young,” Fannin said. “Now a lot of people have in another form to allocate their wealth. Others say Mr. Ma in charitable and environmental causes is China’s future development direction of a logo. However more typical career is they have lead, can try his luck again, to help some start-ups and entrepreneurs.

about the other parts of Asia, the Nielsen company is the latest surveys show that, in terms of economic appearance, Indonesia is the world’s most bullish market, the second in the Philippines. In the world’s largest savings in the country’s ranking, southeast Asian economies accounted for the top 10. Nielsen consumer behavior in southeast Asia, north Asia and the Pacific managing director of Vishal Bali, said: “the funds have more freedom than in the past, southeast Asian consumers have more chance to consider investment and savings […]. These latest findings show that southeast Asian consumers in a rainy day, early.”

according to the Survey of the 2014 Deloitte Southeast Asia chief financial officer (Deloitte Southeast Asia, the CFO Survey 2014), 48% of the respondents were bullish on the outlook, it marks the self-confidence grew in terms of construction of the economic environment.

the second Thiel is missing, is that there is no saving propensity to China and she may some pessimistic outlook for their own economic prospects do a causality analysis. 2013 issued a explore the mysteries of Asian americans rich book called “the key of the success of Chinese”, the author Zhao Yukong writes:

in Chinese society, no matter ever read Confucian classics, saving has been deeply rooted, handed down from generation to generation of cultural values. […]. Have certain deposits, have good financial ability, a chinese-american economic situation is more optimistic about the future. […]. Chinese-american must be followed in their savings as a dogma.

however, in recent years, China’s central bank governor, zhou xiaochuan, China’s high savings rate is largely influenced by Confucianism, Confucianism has always attaches great importance to the thrifty, sobriety, self-restraint, oppose extravagance and waste.

the United States foreign policy magazine Sheldon Garon to Asia’s high savings rate is also a unique insights. He writes:

may sound a little strange, I think Asian universality “worry about saving money” common “Asian features” has nothing to do with them, like other countries response to the call of saving them. […]. I’m not sure, but it can stimulate people to save money, but will also create other problems. The contradiction between the shortage of high savings rate and social welfare is a worldwide difficult problem. Many poor countries have not done enough in terms of social welfare, directly led to the low savings rate.

Thiel said of Asia, especially China, doesn’t flinch, he even said that the Chinese in the United States and new technologies have been playing a game of cat and mouse. By describing a simple example of globalization, he wants to show that this is not a real innovation. The original is like this:

for China development the easiest way is to copy the western model without scruple. In fact, China is doing just that: by burning more coal, build more factories and skyscrapers to complete clear plan. Population resource prices, however, the Chinese people’s standard of living will really catch up with the developed countries, is very difficult, China knows it. According to Thiel, a country want to real innovation, from scratch, create a new land, you must first have a optimistic face, for your own future believe that fate is master in his own hands. But Asia (China) and contrast in silicon valley, really suitable for you?

must be made clear that I completely believe that “from scratch” is not only for the global economy and modern science and technology investment pattern of long-term thinking, more of a factual inquiry. After all, innovation, market analysis, and a piece of silicon valley, Peter Thiel has always been the most authority figure. But, he referred to in the “from scratch” about China and its neighboring obvious confidence level of this problem, let a person cannot help but want to ask, he really understand Asia?

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