Now how to play the day price “CARDS” this venture?

cloud network hunting note: as the saying goes, the small wager chief use for delight, bet that killed the cat. On the CARDS, what is not a rarity, about to send a person to a life is a wonderful thing, but who can have Open Day, playing in risk investment “poker”? Teach you two. A certain market exit safely in time, Second, beware of the tech bubble, as far as possible a soft landing.

as super unicorn club members constantly improve the quota of financing (such as social media website Pinterest recently won a $11 billion valuation), more and more financial analysts have started to research the seemingly ridiculous Numbers, want to know what does this mean that another round of the tech bubble. Bill KeErLi (Uber investors and well-known venture capital firms Benchmark general partners) not long ago in the United States Austin, “south by southwest conference” held by the claim that some of those business circle “unicorn” (for those valuations in the $1 billion start-up) may face the despair of death.

another behind the angels (Sarah fryer and Eric new mo faithful partners) in a statement posted on bloomberg, think of those high valuation is distortion data at all, accurate said a significant portion of the late trading is increasingly perfect downside protection treaty by the results. As the considerate the protection measures, the higher the company’s market value usually, (after all, investors’ worries less), but when it attempted to listed, there may be 180 degrees a reversal.

I think some of the earlier in the early period of the start-up high valuation is reasonable in logic, one of the most significant is Slack, in a few months after its products won a $1 billion valuation. Accurately speaking, the amount of the late more challenging key (and more), because at that time, accelerate the financing is not too much significance, but also of the original into millions of capital in the snowball rolling, up to hundreds of millions of dollars.

it is obvious that the VCS was playing with a public high-stakes poker game, and the final result only has two extremes, not get rich overnight, is since then into the abyss. And they gamble is a science and technology market bubble and a few years will be punctured (and ultra high valuations will not evaporate slowly). But gradually they will realize their investment risk existing in the system, and to try to hold their value, so the rest is a matter of time, it will finally revealed the VCS caught is good CARDS.

m&a gold period, exit the market safeguard

at the moment we can see the “unicorn” valuations are shows that this is a bull market, startup exit environment is hard in good condition. First look at some of the data, look at several leading technology companies in the United States. , according to the market value of apple, Microsoft and Google made the list, and in the top 10 at the top, the third and fifth places respectively. May have another 24 companies big mergers and acquisitions budgets (including cisco, Oracle), and a large number of new technology companies are also gaining momentum, intend to enter the rapid development.

is perhaps the most important, America’s nasdaq index weights of science and technology since the last time after the dotcom bubble, to unprecedented height for the first time that break through 5000 points, which means that the company can be within the scope of the valuation of more flexible merger and other enterprises.

this makes major acquisition a pile after pile of last year, and continues today. Data show that, compared with 2013, the number of mergers and acquisitions in 2014 rose about 50%, and many are billions of big deals, just like Facebook for $19 billion, and the price is full acquisition IM global eldest brother WhatsApp application.

to tell an example of one of the largest and most popular video game live sites abroad Twitch with a net worth of $1 billion, also sold to amazon. In fact, at the end of 2012 the company also has carried on the B round of funding, and just two years, it has to do with that several technology giants, natural withdrawal fee also more expensive.

maybe now those billions of dollars of market exit transactions is the focus of attention, but there is no denying that compared to the “small”, their quality is more significant. Look at Sunrise, this company, it has been recently Microsoft with more than $100 million price. You know, the company was founded in 2012, and threw into such a market is considered out of difficult industry (value personal productivity). And Microsoft could have own r&d this app, but since have shortcut, so why not? A cheque is simple enough.

in fact, this level of merger and acquisition activity will only be worse, because such as alibaba, Line and samsung strong Asian technology companies are likely to take on in the world (the key is in the United States) to expand their influence.

data show that as more and more wealthy people follow suit investment performance excellent start-up company, from an investment risk already fell sharply, especially compared with five years ago. The risk is less means that the valuation will be rising.

at the same time, the exit transactions may also affect the different stages of the venture capital investment. , of course, their impact on traditional later investors more direct, because the latter is more sensitive to these (hopefully a problems can timely withdraw investment). But this does not mean that the early investors don’t care about it.

the VCS more concerned about the final prices, as they care more about their portfolio companies will enter the next round, because of involvement in their vaguely forebode to the valuation of the next round. By traditional later investors to provide a high valuation will directly influence the judgment of the up-and-coming generation, prompting them to make a higher valuation, then have been around early investors in seed money.

valuations in good condition, may also be responsible for promoting “unicorn” poker players willing to pay the same bet.

“hard landing” events will repeat itself?

of course, other factors such as the geopolitical and economic cycle, driven by the favorable market exit environment may suddenly appear plummet. Unfortunately, due to the lack of liquidity, entrepreneurial common traditional later investors in the changing market environment on the one hand, is struggling.

it is well known that public investment flexibility is bigger, every investor buy one or a few million shares can be arbitrary. As the change of market environment, the same applies to the listed company. Imagine that a typhoon was raided Thailand, it will affect the sales of apple’s latest smart watches? Right, then sell the stock. Can be expected as long as you think more forward-looking than others in the market, even if the investment plan is not perfect, to make money also is not a problem.

however, contrary to the non-listed company investment. If there is such a company financing, you can also have the opportunity to mix. Didn’t catch it, miss this village, there is no this shop. Whereas once to get involved, regardless of the subsequent changes, stock trading is almost impossible to happen. In short, compared with the open market continued financing, private equity is more like a desperate, investment risk is greatly increased. If this Thursday the prospects of an investment is relatively optimistic, but you never know, next Monday may collapse. But, you do.

a little speak, traditional late not venture capital investors. Accurate said, they tend to be those due to the high price, which cannot find a huge business opportunities open market investors in the stock market, “opportunistic” now look to the kind of security to the listed company, trying to early to invest in them. Such is their lifeline, downside protection measures for its original goal, it is not absolutely in return. In their view, regardless of the capital risk of impairment, 20% of the rate of return is still possible.

this is where the bet. As long as maintaining the momentum of rapid development of science and technology industry, that the investment will inevitably have a certain influence on public valuations. But once the situation changes, all investors are likely to be distressed white head, because their capital no display space. Also, for $20 million in the early stage of the financing, it may be less important, but if it is late a $400 million investment, industry situation is definitely one of the fundamental basis.

but clearly, most investors still bullish on the current market situation, thought the tech bubble too early to. What’s more, every investment enterprises have the ability to integrate exit, now only one shop has gone too far. Even if there is a unicorn poker players to participate in, the company may also vanished in a flash. Inevitably, the investment company shall be under pressure, only hope that god bless, they will be able to catch a good hand.

Source: TC

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