By software is “eat” the auto industry, reverse power in silicon valley

(compile: loops)

cloud network hunting note: development is inseparable from the science and technology in all walks of life, but when it comes to science and technology, silicon valley is the cradle of world science and technology. In the future, the software is leading the development of self-driving cars will be is closely related to silicon valley, because has its unique advantages in silicon valley, pull them through software research and development.

in 1985, the New York times has an article about why the laptop will be more and more unpopular; The article mentioned in the early 1980 s, laptop is very popular; But it’s starting from the mid – 80 – s popularity index will fall greatly. This article will explain the reason, for: “people don’t want to when the sunshine on the beach, hands still carrying a laptop; Also don’t want to waste their spare time on the train on the computer, they might as well take this time to look at the sports news in the newspaper and business information.” In fact, as early as 1980 on the New York times has an article about online news service conveys the popularity of notebook computer will gradually reduce, top write: “when you’re in a hurry to catch the subway, you can’t put your computer in armpits through the crowd, it’s too inconvenient (newspaper will get you)!”

recently, on the market for apple production car there are all kinds of speculation, the speculation, it’s easy to let people make the same mistake, think the future self-driving cars will defeat now car types like laptops to traditional information media. A few decades ago, many people hope that the future one day can produce self-driving cars, their expectations for the future of the world at that time and we are now the world is more or less; Now we can only produce car is semi-automatic. Economists made a research report, the report shows that self-driving cars will not occupy more than 25% of the auto market.

the computer revolution is that economists think how ridiculous. Now, the function of the computer is more and more powerful, and its price is lower, it brings to the human society’s welfare is still can not surpass other inventions. The wide use of computers allow people to online consumption anytime and anywhere. Like other music media, newspapers, books, retail, maps, photography, these industries in the era of digital services development, also benefit. Social media, video streaming these emerging service industry, the existence of the computer and smartphone is more important.

the emergence of self-driving cars, will the above this kind of phenomenon in the field of industries related to it. 2035 cars affirmation and car is very different now, like apple phone now is equivalent to 1995 computers. Trucking, restaurants, retail, logistics, public transportation, real estate industry and other industries will slowly to adapt to the effects of self-driving cars, better self-driving cars become part of the economic development. People will by self-driving cars to develop some new service categories, these services are now hard to imagine.

self-driving cars more is used for rental, rather than being with

in the future, self-driving car market and now the biggest car market different should be in both the business model is different, the former sales in order to make customers to share cars, implement carpool, the latter’s sales goal is to get the motors as personal items. Now, most of the cars are sold to private households; Because now the car need drivers, Labour, which makes the car cannot be Shared between family. But once the self-driving cars after widespread popularization, let driver sitting position is too waste of manpower, a waste of time.

self-driving cars more for rent, the prospects of its economic development has a profound impact. Most people think that the automobile industry’s profit is very low, apple does not fit into the field, because the apple industry has long been engaged in high profits. But my colleague Matt Yglesias points out those opinions and arguments for apple without any meaning, because apple had a glorious history, it has the ability to put people in the eyes of low-profit market into a profitable market, such as the smartphone market and personal communications services market. There is no doubt that self-driving cars popular in the future days, carpool universality, then profits this problem is not so important. What’s more. Carpool companies may want to high practicality, high efficiency and with the function of other special auto pay high cost.

self-driving cars and appearance of the automobile appearance is very different now

most car looks like now: four to five seats, a car trunk, an engine that can make the car racing on the highway and a can let the car pass thousands of large capacity in the tank. In fact, most people choose to buy their own car because it can provide a convenient, even a short more than ten miles, you can also drive to yourself.

the self-driving car has the specialized design, it can greatly improve its working efficiency. If you buy a car just for yourself, then you can choose only one or two car seat; Because it not only low price number. If you frequently travel route no highway, you’d better choose high efficiency electric cars, its speed is not more than 30 miles per hour. If you buy a car to carry passengers or staff, you should choose petrol-powered type truck or truck, of course, they are expensive.

after the popular means of transportation should be the biggest characteristic of it doesn’t have to rely on human to drive. Suppose if you booked pizza now, it is set by the driver installed in a large car (relative to the pizza), and then in front of it to you. Very large volume and weight of the car, in order to transport the weight of a few pounds pizza, may be too overqualified. If you want to, after the car is no longer need a driver, isn’t the big, bulky and expensive transport, there is no value?

if this change will lead the development trend in car later, so for some old car company is very bad. Because they are a wide range of cars, a car is the cost of a little said is tens of thousands of dollars, and the production of cars are have more than one seat, if we do not sell it is difficult to profit. Like apple production of auto parts company, is usually carried out in a small scale production, it’s a little bit every surplus are eliminated, the weight of the saved every does not need to cost, which is produced of self-driving cars have the advantage.

self-driving cars does not represent a kind of luxury in the future

, an economist at the research achievements of the Boston consulting group predicted self-driving cars in 2035 to only 10% of the car market share, and it must be established on the basis of the car has an automatic function. In short, it can capture up to 25% of the market.

it is clear that self-driving cars can exactly when formally entered the market remains a question. Boston consulting group that science and technology and management problems will put it into market 10 years later. But once the self-driving technology enters the market, in the first decade of its market share is likely to exceed 10%.

technology difficult problem that exist in the automatic driving technology and software related mostly. Now have self-driving car sensor, its price is very expensive, but within a decade it price should be decreased, at least let people can afford; Now the problem is that we can’t write a software, it can solve the self-driving cars could meet all the problems.

but once the software is written can meet the above conditions, it can be widely used. It may even help to upgrade software on semiautomatic car, let them also has the ability of automatic driving. Road car, of course, impossible is all become self-driving cars overnight; Because not all the people in the self-driving cars appeared on the market, will immediately abandoned his former use traditional cars. Automatic driving a car is not only high security also is very convenient, the two big advantages alone is enough to attract a large number of customers, especially young people, they will soon accept self-driving cars.

once the self-driving cars safer than human driving a car, about whether people should also drive the discussion of the traditional cars becomes very serious. After all, the living example in front of people. Resulted in the car accident in 2012, only 33561 deaths, mostly due to the driver distraction, fatigue, or drink, and cause of the accident (not the car itself). If in the future, a more secure travel choice appeared, people will feel the danger of driving a car travel coefficient is too high.

self-driving cars will create a new situation of the auto industry

a few decades later, self-driving cars will occupy most of the traditional automobile market. In addition, self-driving cars will derive some new car category.

self-driving cars for express transportation service company is a huge threat, such as the UPS logistics company, federal express; In addition, some of its online retailers may also be affected. For express delivery man along the route of delivery, delivery parcel delivery time is under control, usually within a few days. But once after delivery routes and shipping time is shortened, it no longer needs the delivery person. The appearance of small automatic transport makes people’s life more convenient, people can like pizza scheduled due to their articles for daily use, anytime and anywhere, of course, it takes a certain transportation cost.

although everything is hard to say later, what will become of automobile market and no one know; But we can be sure a lot of the new generation of retailers buy automatic driving a car, the car must be and what we see now run to the car on the way.

car companies will continue to improve their competitive advantage

economists warned that “apple needs to catch up the existing some auto makers, because they not only in attracting talents, software development and continue to bring in some precise auxiliary driving his car model technology, such as automatic parking, stop-and-go traffic navigation technology.” If you want to make a software leading industry prosper (auto industries are developing in this direction), alone is not enough to hire a large number of programmers.

has guiding significance for the development of traditional media organizations are very. In the past twenty years, the content of the record companies, newspapers, and other Hollywood producers invested tens of thousands of dollars trying to establish a network platform for their content. Now the market is occupied by some outsiders, such as YouTube and Netflix, Amazon Prime, iTunes, Pandora; Buzzfeed, the huffington post, and so on.

to complete large software engineering needs certain cultural background, and this is the unique advantages of silicon valley start-ups. At present to develop, for example, for self-driving cars safer, more reliable car software also there is a huge obstacle, investigate its reason is the car is made up of various components, these components are all from different contractors; The contractor all their software source code as need serious confidential business secret; This makes automobile manufacturers in the production car, will not be able to review the software that failure and safety defects and take measures.

if the company wants to avoid in the process of car production a big security hidden danger, then auto companies will need to think carefully how to manage the company car parts supply chain. Such as apple, Google, by contrast, in the development of safe and reliable software company with full experience is unlikely to make such a mistake.


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