10 March until 2:30 in the morning, finally finished 2015 Apple product launch, Apple Watch finally remove all the veil, consumers are most concerned about product price and time to market one by one. At this point, about Apple early all the speculation and looking forward to Watch should be in at the moment. The controversies surrounding on Apple Watch but I did not stop. How will the late performance; Apple Watch whether has the ability to rewrite the wearable equipment market pattern, bring the iPhone to be subversive, written Apple myth, become Apple’s next growth pole; And how many people after looking at the conference began preparing for the ticket, looking forward to the listed after the first time to buy buy buy? Time said its subversive, said its several schools of thought contend, the busy scene of infection, I’m going to call it, learn to talk about my point of view.
about Apple Watch, in fact I in many articles are less promising. And after apple 2015 spring conference, more deepened my late to its performance or subversive. So in the Apple Watch will start at $349, “log in China in April, I had a rough express my opinion of Apple Watch. I said in the article: “Apple Watch whether has the ability to rewrite the wearable equipment market pattern, bring the iPhone to be upset? After the conference, when Apple Apple Watch all the veil, I personally think that Watch is Apple does not have the ability to do this, Apple Watch from consumers expect disruptive change is still a long way. But based on Apple’s strong brand appeal and strong fan base, we have reason to believe that Apple will watch a relatively nice achievements, he for wearable industry, although has made a more optimized, the step of the larger, but it is only a strong boost. “ because android devices pain points of the problems in the current Apple on the Watch is not resolved, Apple instead of Watch itself has these pain points.
a, use experience
in the first place, ask you a question: the iPod, the iPhone, such as the apple products quickly accepted by people and formed a trend around the world one of the most important reason is what? Believe that most people will answer is innovation. That’s right, is innovation, innovation is for the promotion of the user experience than on the user experience, the essence of innovation is to return to use experience. iPod, iPhone, the device can rapid success, break the question, is innovation or they unearthed at that time, the experience of using the same kind equipment, providing the use of a more natural enjoyment, greatly reduce the use of learning cost, make products to experience the pleasure of get a boost, to say the experience is the apple device of living. But in the Apple on the Watch, this innovation is hard to find you, it is hard to bring you what a pleasure experience. The two reasons: one is the battery life bad; Second, the limit of the size.
Apple Watch in the current difficult to bring you the joyful experience and, of course, the biggest reason is its poor battery life. In accordance with the said Apple Apple official figures Watch battery life can sustain 18 hours or so, but the battery life, filling a day is absolutely essential. Why the life will become the most factors affecting Apple Watch use experience? The reason is that Apple Watch device properties, Apple Watch positioning for intelligent wearable devices, but from the perspective of the nature of intelligence wearable devices, she was conducted on wearable products intelligent extension, a basic requirement of the wearable need to stay long enough on consumers. In order to collect more information on the user, but Apple Watch one day is not enough to support life, how to accomplish such a mission? Can you imagine you need every day to solve bracelet, connected to the charger for a watch?
And the limit of the size
Apple in the Apple Watch product display shows such as WeChat, applications, such as paying Biao to Apple’s appeal, according to such thinking, maybe QQ, games will also follow up sharply, Apple seems to want the iOS ecosystem on Apple Watch. But now the Apple Watch just 1.65 inch screen size, will greatly limit the Apple’s ambition. Apple Watch is not suitable for the application of this kind. Whether it is a touch on the screen size or on the input operation or perception experience are congenitally deficient. Trend for these operations will need to have reasonable bigger, even apple cannot reverse this trend. You might say apple or smart assistant Siri, isn’t it? Regardless of Siri’s intelligent degree, and talk about voice input, you really have seen a lot of people now in use? In Apple couldn’t find it on the small screen products before the reasonable input mode, Apple Watch will not be able to input experience of pleasure. This is not only the Apple Watch are faced with the problem, but also all wearable products are faced with the problem.
2, usage scenario
Apple Apple Watch, many people think that Apple will rebuild usage scenario, create the user requirements, again for the rest of users. Because Apple device is successfully created such a demand, then from the successful experience of the derivation of Apple Watch will also be so. But create the preemption of the products is the user a lot of time left, see the user demand for portable mobile entertainment. But we also see in the domestic mobile phone almost universal access to today, the decline is accelerating. Back to Apple Watch, we thought is when we don’t convenient take out mobile phone, Apple Watch can remind some advised us that do know and reply quickly. But in real life, how many time we can’t be on the smart phone for the first time know this information? Ordinary consumers and can participate in many occasions even can’t take out mobile phone? So, I think a lot of people to Apple Watch thought too bigger and idealized the use of occasions. Apple Watch reality usage scenario is extremely narrow, the narrow usage scenarios, exactly how many users need?
3, positioning problem
Apple Watch you can give him a lot, for example – light luxury, fashion, electronic watches, bracelets gym class. But you are hard to give Apple Watch an accurate positioning. Apple Watch how to build for a new independent category or as a part of the iPhone accessories products. If, as a new independent products but its not completely out of the iPhone, if as the accessory products, seems more some redundant except some overqualified. As the point 2 say, Apple Watch things can be done, the iPhone have no what can’t complete, can even do better. Not only the iPhone can do better, iphones third-party products can also be done well. So whether it is worthwhile to take the price to buy it again. Maybe you will tell me, buy it not to function, but to force. But the real can turn these pretend bility of users have?
four, is likely to be the standard version of the best sales
Apple Watch sales, many analysts have said is optimistic, for its future is very promising, despite my pessimistic judgment, according to a more senior analyst forecasts. Apple will Apple Watch is divided into sports version starts at $349, $549 of standard and custom three limited edition version of $10000. In an attempt to use a product, different price to different consumption groups were occupied. But I think apple such a strategy would probably not succeed. The fate of the three versions will be: movement is likely to be another form of iPhone5c, custom limited edition will also be embarrassed, and the standard edition will hold up sales of the standard.
movement version – another form of iPhone5c
the Apple on the Apple Watch again acted in a iPhone5c play of the year. That year, apple iPhone5c, try to enter a lower end group, intended to cover more younger groups. IPhone5c polycarbonate material used to make its color is rich and colorful, and keep the apple has consistently superior quality and good handle. Many iPhone5c consumers to fondle admiringly, but the overall market response to its is flat, and has better to iPhone5s demand, therefore, apple will also iPhone5c reductions, to increase the capacity of iPhone5s. Why apple’s house on the whole, the price is relatively cheap and can not find out what’s wrong with iPhone5c unpopular? To popular iPhone5s? More because iPhone5c and the difference between the 5 s is not obvious, but was labeled as a low-end, and buy apple consumers are reluctant to be labeled as low-end of the label. So more willing to join a small amount of money to buy 5 s at the same time. Back to the Apple on the Watch, a $349 sports version of the Apple is belong to the low price range in the Watch, equivalent to iPhone5c at that time, the standard version and $549 is equivalent to the time of 5 s. The price gap is not obvious. You might say, isn’t there more than $549 standard edition limited customization of high-end local tyrants version? And how would the local tyrants version.
local tyrants version of embarrassing
a realistic question, to spend $ten thousand in Apple users willfulness, to buy this one Apple Watch limited customised version. We all understand. Apple starts at $ten thousand Apple Watch limited customised version, intention is clear, is to highlight the dignity of Watch, Apple set up Apple Watch luxury properties, intentions towards into light and decoration field. But such a desire is likely to end up at this stage will be embarrassed, Apple Watch limited customised version although material is luxurious, but also only stay in the luxurious materials, but the use of luxurious materials is not difficult, difficult is a status symbol on the back of a luxurious materials with unique service experience handed down and accessory collection appreciation of space. But Apple Watch as electronic products, its fast update cycle, first will weaken its appreciation of space, more important is he’s very hard to bring a status symbol and unique service experience. Luxury brands with everyone is familiar with cell phone Vertu (former nokia, in what is now northern European private equity firms EQT VI, nokia has a 10% stake) to the analysis we can see that support Vertu luxury properties is not only a luxury configuration and all hand made, but also its exclusive behind the “Vertu housekeeping service, can bring the super for Vertu customer service. But Apple Apple Watch is does not have such properties at this stage, it has only a pair of gold luxury skins. A pair of skins can really reveal identity, in front of the real id, rhinestone estimates are embarrassed to take him. So I think in high-end will be embarrassed.
at this point, the low-end and high-end are unable to support sales, sales of heavy burden, an analyst at nature also will fall in the standard version.
Apple Watch is carrying apples diversification and mining under a gold mine of hope, but cannot be solved at the present stage of weakness and screen size result in user experience problems, usage scenarios of exaggeration and function of subjunctive problems will limit the current Apple the growth of the Watch. Need to highlight is: this is not only for Apple Watch are faced with the problem, but also the whole wearable devices are faced with the problem. So I rejoiced at the current industry of Apple watch of subversion and expected the market performance of skeptical and pessimistic. Apple if able to quickly solve these pain points, so, I will change the pessimistic attitude, perhaps, this change of attitude, must wait until Apple Watch the second generation or third generation.
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